Thursday, July 10, 2014

A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY WITH A FEW HICCUPS ALONG THE WAY

No economic recovery is perfect, in any sector; jobs, manufacturing, import/export, tourism, restaurants/services, and housing. There will be recovery and sputter, ebb and flow. Let’s concentrate on housing. There has been much positive news that relates to housing, primarily jobs and construction. New homes are still off a full 50% from a “normal” market, but the housing projects and construction starts by America’s biggest builders are definitely making a comeback. In fact, they are the highest they’ve been since 2008. In fact, new home sales jumped 18.6% last month, even as sales for single-family resale slowed. The volume of sales for existing homes fell for 8 consecutive months. Before anyone starts screaming that the sky is falling again, must remember that we are reporting a decline in sales for 2014 compared with 2013, which had been the hottest year since 2006 with double digit appreciation. For the volume to flatten out and prices to stabilize, southern California needed inventory. It appears that at last this is happening. The problem now...watch out sellers. You cannot simply tack on an extra fifty or one hundred thousand to your sales price, because that’s what your neighbor did last year. Prices have softened, you have more competition, and buyers are taking their time. With interest rates staying so low, there is no real outer motivating factor to drive a rapid market. Classic economics would tell you we are far from a neutral market, we still don’t have enough inventory. But it certainly feels that way, as buyers peruse through open houses and are reluctant to make offers. If you are a seller who has a location or floor plan and no competition, you no doubt may still field multiple offers. But don’t expect necessarily an all out bidding war. Part of the reason is that more of the buyers are now millenials. They won’t overspend to get exactly what they want, as the baby boomers did when they were the driving force behind the market. Millenials are pickier, they are conservative about their debt, and a deal must make sense for them. Plus, many have been living in multi-generational family situations, and they are in no hurry to move.

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MORE ON MILLENIALS, THE BETTER YOU UNDERSTAND THEM

The big statistic is that 3 of 4, or roughly 75%, plan on buying a home in the next 5 years. As far as student debt goes, it’s not as bad as you think; 58% owe $10,000 or less and 18% owe between $10,000 and $20,000. The biggest mitigating factor will be what the Fed does with interest rates in 2015 through 2016. By 2017, one would fully expect interest rates to be floating in an organic economic system once again. We’ll see.

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WHAT WERE THE ACTUAL NUMBERS?

The total number of homes sold, all categories, was 2,981. (This for May, the last complete month available.) That was off 18.3% compared with May of 2013. Resale homes hit 1,855. a decline of 21%. Condos sold at a pace of 786 and lost 22.4% year over year. New homes hit that high of 340 and rose in volume by 18.1%. The median price of all types blended was $595,000 and that was up 10% year over year. Prices are definitely diving back down. Appreciation overall is expected to stay around 4% to 6% for 2014. Single-family resale rose 8.3% and condos 11%. Foreclosures continue to hover near an 8 year low. All of So Cal had 10,010 Notices of Default, or NOD’s, for the first quarter of 2014. Orange County had a paltry 1,244 NOD’s.

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IF WE PUT REAL ESTATE AND MUTUAL FUNDS SIDE BY SIDE, HOW DOES IT LOOK?

Looking at real estate as an investment, putting aside the considerations that it also provides shelter, and a tax write off, here is the breakdown of return on in vestment, by age group: 1) 18-29 Real Estate - 25% / Mutual Funds - 21% 2) 30-49 RE - 34% / MF 23% 3) 50-64 RE - 30% / MF 28% 4) Over 65 RE - 31% / MF - 28% Hopefully, you have found some good information with which to evaluate your own situation in regards to the real estate market.

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