Friday, October 27, 2017

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

• Interest rates rose last week, and consequently total mortgage application volume fell 4.6 percent from the previous week. The Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted weekly index now stands down 19 percent from the same week one year ago.
• The drop affected all types of applications, but those to purchase a home fell the hardest — 6 percent for the week. This may have less to do with the rise in rates and more to do with the lack of homes for sale. The drought in supply continues to push prices higher and clearly sidelined more buyers. Purchase applications remained 10 percent higher from the same week one year ago.
• Higher home prices are now showing up in mortgage applications. The average loan amount on purchase applications last week increased to $317,000, the highest since May.
• Mortgage applications to refinance a home loan fell 3 percent for the week and are down 36 percent from a year ago, when interest rates were higher. The MBA is now forecasting a 28 percent drop in refinance originations next year because interest rates are expected to rise further.
• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $424,100 or less increased to 4.18 percent last week from 4.14 percent the previous week, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.44, including the origination fee, for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans.

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NEW HOME SALES SURGE

Source: Housing Wire

After hitting a new low in August, new home sales surged in September to their fastest pace in the past decade, according to the latest report released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Sales of new single-family houses in September surged to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 sales, the report showed. This is up a full 18.9 percent from 561,000 new home sales in August and up 17 percent from 570,000 sales in September 2016. The increase marked the fastest pace of home sales in 10 years.

Full story
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41661-new-home-sales-10-year-high-baffles-economists

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EMPTY NESTERS ARE LURED TO APARTMENT LIFE

Source: RENTCafe Blog

Renters may finally be getting some relief. Apartment rents are not increasing as much as they have in the last few years.

One of the biggest segments of new renters is empty nesters ages 55 and up, as multifamily developers reconsider their original focus on millennials. Between 2009 and 2015, the number of renters older than 55 increased 28 percent, or 2.5 million—the largest uptick of any age
group, according to data from rental listing site RENTCafé. Meanwhile, the number of renters ages 34 and younger rose just 3 percent during the same time period.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean seniors are headed for urban high-rises when seeking apartment life. Nearly 40 percent of renters older than 55 chose a suburban lifestyle, according to RENTCafĂ©. Of the 20 largest metros in the country, the city of Riverside, Calif., has the largest percentage of seniors making up renter households (63 percent). Los Angeles, however, has posted the largest gain in senior renters—about 134,000 between 2009 and 2015.

Full story
https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/real-estate-news/todayrenterprofile-older-highly- educated-suburban/

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SURVEY: BUYERS LEERY OF ONLINE MORTGAGE INFO

Source: Fannie Mae

Consumers trust real estate professionals and lenders more than online sources or family and friends when it comes to obtaining information about mortgages, according to a new Fannie Mae survey based on 1,000 responses. Recent home buyers surveyed, including younger age groups, say they consulted multiple sources of information about the mortgage process but found lenders and real estate agents to be more credible than mobile apps, websites, and social media.

Though survey respondents say online sources are more convenient, they indicated a higher level of confidence in getting information through person-to-person interaction. However, home buyers do report using online sources to shop for a home much more often than to shop for a mortgage, according to the survey.

Full story
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/housingsurvey/pdf/oct2017-topicanalysis- presentation-mortgage-shopping-influencers.pdf

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WATCH OUT WHERE YOU GET HELP WITH BUYING A HOUSE

Source: CNBC

Since the beginning of the housing recovery in 2012, home prices have raced ahead at a pace far stronger than income gains.

That imbalance is causing more homebuyers to look for a helping hand.
Attom Data Solutions reports that on average, nearly 1 in 4 mortgages in the second quarter involved co-borrowers who were not spouses, compared with less than 1 in 5 as recently as 2015.

In many major markets, co-borrowing was even more popular. More than 50 percent of mortgages in San Jose, California, which includes Silicon Valley, involved co-borrowers in the second quarter. In Miami, 45 percent of mortgages had co-borrowers, Seattle had 39 percent, in Portland, Oregon, nearly 30 percent of mortgages had co-borrowers and in Tampa, Florida, 26 percent.

Full story
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/20/watch-out-where-you-get-help-with-buying-a-house.html

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HUD OFFERS DISASTER RELIEF TO FIRE VICTIMS


Source: Housing Wire

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced it will offer relief to disaster victims of the recent California wildfires, including foreclosure suspensions and other assistance to certain homeowners in the affected counties.

The fires are being called the deadliest and most destructive in the state’s history. About 3,000 homes – 5 percent of its housing stock – were destroyed in Santa Rosa alone, and a disaster declaration was made for Butte, Lake, Mendocino, Napa, Nevada, Orange, Sonoma and Yuba counties.

Here are the programs HUD announced are available for homeowners in the declared disaster area:
HUD also announced it would be sharing information with FEMA and the state on housing providers that could have available units in the impacted counties including public housing agencies and multifamily owners.

Here are the programs HUD announced are available for homeowners in the declared disaster area:

• Immediate foreclosure relief: HUD announced it will grant a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures for Federal Housing Administration-insured home mortgages. HUD explained there are tens of thousands of FHA-insured homeowners in the impacted areas. 
• Forbearance and loan modification options: HUD is offering forbearance and loan modifications for FHA borrowers in the disaster areas.
• Making mortgage insurance available: HUD will provide FHA insurance to disaster victims who have lost their homes and must rebuild or buy another home. Borrowers are eligible for 100% financing, including closing costs from FHA- approved lenders.
• Making insurance available for both mortgages and home rehabilitation: HUD’s Section 203 loan program enables homeowners who lost their home to finance the purchase or refinance of a house along with its repair through a single mortgage. It also allows homeowners who have damaged homes to finance its rehabilitation.

Full story
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41613-hud-offers-disaster-relief-to-california-wildfire- victims

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Friday, September 15, 2017

EQUIFAX DATA BREACH COULD LEAD TO YEARS OF GRIEF FOR HOME BUYERS

Source: Washington Post

The catastrophic theft of 143 million consumers’ personal data from national credit bureau Equifax could cause financial grief for years for home buyers and mortgage applicants. The odds are that some of your sensitive information was stolen — possibly your address, Social Security number, driver’s license and credit card numbers — and could now be up for grabs to the highest bidders on a Dark Web site.

Making sense of the story:
• Equifax and the other two national bureaus, Experian and TransUnion, keep files on approximately 220 million individuals, so roughly two-thirds of consumers are potentially at risk from the breach. Ironically, the people who are called “credit invisibles” — the millions of Americans with little or no information in the bureaus’ files — may be the least affected by Equifax’s security lapse.


• Home buyers and mortgage applicants, on the other hand, tend to have significant information on file at the bureaus and could run into complications soon or down the road.
• If your personal information was hacked but you don’t do anything to detect fraudulent activity on one or more of your credit accounts, you’ll have problems. For example, you sign a contract to buy a house, and you apply for a mortgage. The lender pulls your credit and confronts you with shocking news: Your FICO credit score is too low for you to qualify for the loan because you’ve been running up too much debt on one or more accounts.
• Additionally, say your lender already has approved you for a mortgage or a home-equity loan. Before the scheduled closing, the loan officer does what has become standard practice in the mortgage industry in recent years — runs another credit check to make sure no new debts have been added since your application. But in the meantime, identity-theft criminals have created a new account or run up charges on one or more of your credit cards, knocking your debt-to- income ratio out of sight.
• Consumers are advised to “lock down your files” with fraud alerts or credit-file freezes. The latter can prevent criminals from creating accounts in your name by denying access to your credit reports. The former signals potential creditors to take extra steps to verify identity before issuing new credit in your name.

Full story
https://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/theft-of-data-could-lead-to-years-of-grief-for- home-buyers-and-mortgage-applicants/2017/09/12/ed0f66fc-971a-11e7-82e4- f1076f6d6152_story.html?utm_term=.9a34b974c756

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HOME STAGING COULD PAY FOR ITSELF AND INCREASE SELLER EQUITY

Source: NAR Economists’ Outlook Blog 

According to 31 percent of REALTORS® who work with buyers, staging a home before listing it for sale on the market could have a price increase of up to five or 10 percent. On a $300,000 home, that could add between $15,000 and $30,000, paying for the cost of home staging and increasing a seller’s equity.

In a new NAR report 2017 Profile of Home Staging, 59 percent of REALTORS® who work with sellers said that staging a home could increase the dollar value buyers offer. Twenty-nine percent said it can increase the dollar value offered by one to five percent and 21 percent said it could increase the dollar value offered by six to 10 percent. If there is no impact on dollar value, home staging can help speed up the time it takes to sell a home, 62 percent said it slightly or greatly decreased a home’s time on market.

Full story
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2017/09/05/home-staging-could-pay-for-itself-and- increase-seller-equity/

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HOW IMMIGRANTS ARE TRANSFORMING THE AMERICAN DREAM

Source: Realtor.com

The impact immigrants have on U.S. real estate is growing, as 13 percent of the nation’s population— about 42 million people—hails from foreign countries, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. “Immigrants are a big driving force for housing markets across the nation,” Kusum Mundra, an economics professor at Rutgers University in Newark, N.J., told realtor.com®. “Most want the American dream, which is to own a home.”

But the road to homeownership for immigrants can be challenging. It takes an average of five to 10 years for immigrants to be able to purchase a home after arriving in the U.S., says Gary Painter, director of social policy at the University of Southern California’s Sol Price Center for Social Innovation. In 2016, about 40.7 percent of immigrants were homeowners compared to 66.1 percent of native-born Americans, according to a realtor.com® analysis. “Just like those born in the U.S., [immigrants] view home buying as putting down roots in the community,” Painter says. “On average, where immigrants are settling, property values have gone up.”

Full story
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/immigrants-homeownership/

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CO-BORROWING TO BUY A HOME IS GAINING POPULARITY

Source: Market Watch 

Home buyers are increasingly taking on co-borrowers to help gain an edge, defray costs and shoulder the burden in a housing market characterized by relentless demand and tight inventory.

A new report from real estate information provider Attom Data shows that in the second quarter, 22.8 percent of mortgage purchase applications involved a co-borrower, up from 21.3 percent in the prior quarter and 20.5 percent in the year earlier.

There are dozens of programs, and a few private companies, that act as co-borrower by offering down payment in return for a share of equity in the home.

Full story
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/co-borrowing-to-afford-a-home-is-gaining-popularity-whos- doing-it-and-why-2017-09-06

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Monday, August 28, 2017

AVOID REAL ESTATE REGRET

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Thursday, August 10, 2017

HOW HOME BUYERS CAN OVERCOME TOUGH COMPETITION

Source: Kiplinger 

Redfin Chief Economist says to win in a hot market, home buyers should take advantage of technology to find homes as soon as they are listed.

Making sense of the story:
• Arm yourself with tech tools to find available homes quickly. With the variety of apps available today, you can receive listing alerts so that you're notified as soon as a home in your price range or search area hits the market.
• Buyers will gain an advantage from whatever concessions they can offer. Instead of a small earnest-money deposit, we've seen buyers put into escrow their entire down payment or even half of the purchase price.
• You needn't waive a contingency for inspection in the purchase contract. Rather, you can agree to pay the seller, say, $2,500, or next month's mortgage payment, if you walk away.
• Work with a local or reputable lender to get a preapproval for your mortgage that includes full documentation of your means to obtain a certain amount of financing in advance of a signed purchase contract. That may give you the confidence to waive a contingency for financing, and it’s almost as good as cash for closing a deal quickly.
• Because sellers can sell their homes in days but may take months to buy, you can gain leverage by offering to "rent back" their home to them for a certain number of months.

• Fall can be a good time to buy a home because prices generally peak in the summer and ease up in the fall. There's a bit less inventory, but many fewer buyers. Plus, sellers who list in the fall are serious because they must leave because of job relocation, divorce or something else that made them miss the top of the season.

Full story

http://www.kiplinger.com/article/real-estate/T010-C000-S002-how-home-buyers-can- overcome-tough-competition.html

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HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE JUMPS FROM 50-YEAR LOW

Source: The Wall Street Journal 

The U.S. homeownership rate may have finally bottomed out, as the share of Americans who own homes is steadily climbing. The ownership rate posted an increase in the second quarter, reversing a sharp downward trend that begun in the Great Recession.

The homeownership rate was 63.7 percent in the second quarter, the U.S. Census Bureau reported. That marks nearly a full percentage point increase from a year ago. Last year, the homeownership rate had plunged to a 50-year low of 62.9 percent.

“The addition of 1.2 million households being homeowners is clearly good news, as more households are participating in housing equity gains,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. “But let’s keep it in perspective: There are fewer homeowners today compared to a decade ago, while renter households have risen by 8 million. So it is still the case that the massive $7 trillion in housing wealth gains from the cyclical low point has been accumulated by a fewer number of families in America. Further advances in homeownership are required to strengthen and broaden the middle class.”

Full story

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/homeownership-rate-jumps-from-50-year-low-2017-07-27

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SELLERS NET HIGHEST PROFIT IN A DECADE

Source: RealtyTrac/ATTOM Data Solutions

Home sellers in the second quarter of this year sold their properties for an average $51,000 more than they paid for them when they bought them. That’s the highest price gain for sellers since the second quarter of 2007, when it was $57,000, according to a new report by real estate data form ATTOM Data Solutions. This represents an average return on investment of 26 percent.

The report also shows that homeowners who sold in the second quarter had owned an average of 8.05 years, up from 7.85 years in the previous quarter and up from 7.59 years in Q2 2016 to the longest average homeownership tenure as far back as data is available, Q1 2000.

All-cash sales represented 28.9 percent of all single family and condo sales in Q2 2017, down from 31.3 percent of all sales in the first quarter, but up from 27.3 percent of all sales in Q2 2016 — the first annual increase in the share of cash sales since Q1 2013.

Out of 118 metro areas with at least 1,000 homes sales in the second quarter, ATTOM Data Solutions found that San Jose (75 percent), San Francisco (65 percent), Seattle (63 percent), Modesto (62 percent), and Denver (62 percent) had the highest percentage of sales in which sellers got top dollar.

Full story

http://www.realtytrac.com/news/home-prices-and-sales/q2-2017-home-sales-report/

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LOW RISK OF A U.S. HOUSING CORRECTION

Source: CNBC


Sales and prices are moving so quickly that appraisals are not keeping up. If the appraisal doesn't match the contract price, the buyer doesn't get the mortgage, and the deal dies. 

New research from JPMorgan examining historic data found that the risk of a dramatic decline in prices is low, despite current fears of a correction in the U.S. and Canada.

Using data from 14 developed countries dating back to 1950, JPMorgan's research found that sharp price corrections have been relatively uncommon, even following large price increases.

"The data show that sustained increases in real house prices have been the norm rather than the exception in the post-World War II era, as rising populations and incomes have pushed up land prices," Jesse Edgerton, U.S. analyst from the investment bank's economic and policy research team, said in the report entitled "Quantifying housing correction risk in Canada and the U.S."

The research comes as fears grow over a housing bubble forming in the West, particularly in countries like the U.S., Canada and Australia. Since the beginning of the global housing boom around the year 2000, real U.S. housing prices are up 29 percent and Canadian prices up 138 percent, Edgerton noted.

Full story

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/jpmorgan-points-to-low-risk-of-a-us-housing-correction.html

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Saturday, June 24, 2017

WAYS HOMEBUYERS CAN LEAP THE DOWN PAYMENT HURDLE

Source: Associated Press 

Saving up for a down payment is the biggest hurdle for many would-be homebuyers, particularly those looking to make the leap from renting to owning.

More than two-thirds of renters consider setting aside money for a down payment the No. 1 obstacle to buying a home, according to a recent survey by real estate data provider Zillow. That edged out other concerns, including job security and a thin supply of homes on the market.

While there are home loans that require as little as 3 percent down, rising home prices, especially in expensive coastal states, keep driving up the amount of money buyers need to come up with for a down payment.

Making sense of the story

• Start saving now. Renters may want to calculate what their extra monthly costs would be as a homeowner and then set aside that amount, minus rent and utilities. This accomplishes two goals: Saving money for a down payment and getting you accustomed to the financial constraints of living with the costs of homeownership.
• The type of home loan you get may determine how much of a down payment you need. For many years, buyers sought to put down 20 percent of the purchase price. That would lower their monthly mortgage payment and allow them to avoid having to pay for private mortgage insurance, or PMI. But as home prices have risen, that trend has waned. Loans that require as little as 3 percent up front have become more common. As a result, the median U.S. down payment has declined to 10 percent the past four years, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.
• Borrowers with low or moderate income, and teachers, firefighters or other public service job holders may also qualify for down payment assistance through thousands of federal, state or local programs aimed at helping homebuyers.
• There are more than 2,100 funded programs, many of which help cover the down payment and closing costs through loans that can sometimes be forgiven over time, or paid back only once the buyer sells the home, according to Down Payment Resource, a tracker of homebuyer assistance programs.

Full story

https://apnews.com/959488b475a042babc570ee21110c5fc/Ways-homebuyers-can-leap-the-down- payment-hurdle

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WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

• Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 2, 2017. This week's results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday. 

 The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since May 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 14 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
 The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 42.1 percent of total applications from 43.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 7.4 percent of total applications.
 The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 4.14 percent, from 4.17 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
 The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.39 percent, from 3.42 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

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MILLENNIALS ARE POWERING THE HOUSING MARKET

Source: NBC News 

Millennials were the largest group of home buyers (34 percent) for the fourth consecutive year, according to NAR's 2017 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends study. By comparison, baby boomers were 30 percent of buyers.

"Millennials have been fairly slow to get into the market, but we are seeing an uptick in millennial buyers this year — which is a good sign, because as home values rise, we want a wider number of people to participate in this housing recovery," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). "There's a pent-up demand and as the economy continues to improve, we expect to see more people in their early thirties, adults who are still living with their parents — clearly not their idea of the American dream — begin to look for their own housing units."

Research done by the National Association of Homebuilders found that more than 90 percent of millennials say they eventually want to buy a house.

Full story

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/who-s-powering-housing-market-surprise-it-s-millennials- n768196

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CALIFORNIA AMONG TOP THREE MARKETS FOR FOREIGN COMMERCIAL BUYERS

Florida and Texas were the top markets on foreign real estate investors shopping lists in 2016.
The National Association of REALTORS® said 20 percent of its commercial real estate members closed a sale last year involving foreign buyers.

Florida, Texas and California were the most popular markets for offshore buyers acquiring small properties for either investment or use, the REALTORS® found in their annual commercial real estate survey.

"Nearly half of REALTORS® reported that they experienced a greater number of international clients looking to buy commercial space over the past five years," NAR's top economist Lawrence Yun said in the report. "Economic expansion has slowly chugged along since the downturn, but in comparison to the rest of the world, the U.S. remains one of the most attractive and safest bets for investors. There's little evidence this will change anytime soon."

NAR found that most of the foreign buyers making a play in the U.S. were from China. Chinese investors accounted for 17 percent of the commercial property sales handled by Realtors.

Full story

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2017/06/06/florida-texas-top-foreign-buyers-property- purchase-list

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Sunday, June 11, 2017

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

• Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 2, 2017. This week's results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday. 

 The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since May 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 14 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
 The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 42.1 percent of total applications from 43.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 7.4 percent of total applications.
 The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 4.14 percent, from 4.17 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
 The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to its lowest level since November 2016, 3.39 percent, from 3.42 percent, with points increasing to 0.43 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

Read more...

CALIFORNIA AMONG TOP THREE MARKETS FOR FOREIGN COMMERCIAL BUYERS

Source: Dallas Morning News 

Florida and Texas were the top markets on foreign real estate investors shopping lists in 2016.
The National Association of REALTORS® said 20 percent of its commercial real estate members closed a sale last year involving foreign buyers.

Florida, Texas and California were the most popular markets for offshore buyers acquiring small properties for either investment or use, the REALTORS® found in their annual commercial real estate survey.

"Nearly half of REALTORS® reported that they experienced a greater number of international clients looking to buy commercial space over the past five years," NAR's top economist Lawrence Yun said in the report. "Economic expansion has slowly chugged along since the downturn, but in comparison to the rest of the world, the U.S. remains one of the most attractive and safest bets for investors. There's little evidence this will change anytime soon."

NAR found that most of the foreign buyers making a play in the U.S. were from China. Chinese investors accounted for 17 percent of the commercial property sales handled by Realtors.

Full story

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2017/06/06/florida-texas-top-foreign-buyers-property- purchase-list

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MILLENINALS ARE POWERING THE HOUSING MARKET

Source: NBC News 

Millennials were the largest group of home buyers (34 percent) for the fourth consecutive year, according to NAR's 2017 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends study. By comparison, baby boomers were 30 percent of buyers.

"Millennials have been fairly slow to get into the market, but we are seeing an uptick in millennial buyers this year — which is a good sign, because as home values rise, we want a wider number of people to participate in this housing recovery," said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). "There's a pent-up demand and as the economy continues to improve, we expect to see more people in their early thirties, adults who are still living with their parents — clearly not their idea of the American dream — begin to look for their own housing units."

Research done by the National Association of Homebuilders found that more than 90 percent of millennials say they eventually want to buy a house.

Full story:

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/real-estate/who-s-powering-housing-market-surprise-it-s-millennials- n768196

Read more...

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

• Mortgage applications increased 2.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 5, 2017. 

• The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier to its highest level since October 2015. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Conventional Purchase Index increased 2 percent from the previous week to its highest level since April 2009. 

• The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 41.9 percent of total applications from 41.6 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 8.2 percent of total applications. 

• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($424,100 or less) remained unchanged at 4.23 percent, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

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GALLUP POLL SHOWS HIGH HOPES FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP

Source: Mortgage News Daily 
While the historically low homeownership rate as reported by the Census Bureau has improved only marginally over the last year, a recent survey by Gallup indicates that it may be on the edge of change. Forty-nine percent of non-homeowners contacted by the polling company in March indicated they expect to buy a home within the next five years, with 10 percent planning on doing so in the next year. An additional 20 percent say they plan on being homeowners within ten years. This leaves only 28 percent with no plans to purchase a home.

Those who plan on buying in the near future tend to be young. Of those aged 18 to 34, 52 percent plan to buy within five years as do 58 percent of those aged 35 to 54. An additional 31 percent of the younger cohort expect buy within 10 years, leaving only 14 percent who do not see homeownership in their foreseeable future. Among older non-homeowners, those over 55, only 30 percent have any plans to buy.

Full story
http://amp.mortgagenewsdaily.com/article/735618

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CONSUMER HOUSING OPTIMISM REBOUNDS IN APRIL

Source: Housing Wire 
Many consumers grew more optimistic about the housing in April, rebounding from March’s dip in confidence, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index. The index increased 2.2 percentage points in April to 86.7, and five of the six components saw an increase.

Americans who said now is a good time to sell a home was the only component to decrease, dropping five percentage points to 26 percent, however those who said now is a good time to buy a home increased five percentage points to 35 percent.

Consumers were also more optimistic about the stability of their jobs, with that component increasing by seven percentage points to 77 percent. Respondents who reported a household income that’s significantly higher than 12 months ago increased by two percentage points to 13 percent.

Full story
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/40064-fannie-mae-consumer-housing-optimism-rebounds-in-april

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MOST L.A. HOMES STILL WORTH LESS THAN BEFORE RECESSION

Source: KPCC Radio 
Southern California's residential market can feel overheated, with the bidding wars on homes and busy open houses. But new research from the real estate website Trulia shows area home prices still have a ways to go before they hit pre-recession peaks. 

The researchers found that in Los Angeles County, just 37.4 percent of homes are priced at more than they were before the housing bust. In Orange County, 23.5 percent have hit that level, while just 3 percent have in the Inland Empire, one of the epicenters of the mortgage meltdown.

But real estate experts predict even if it takes them longer, homes in southern California will see a full rebound.

Making sense of the story • Geoff McIntosh, president of the California Association of Realtors, said the most desirable parts of L.A. County, those near good schools and the beach, are already fetching housing bubble prices.

• McIntosh, who sells homes in Long Beach, said he sees stark differences in home values just within the city itself. Prime properties that had fallen to the $600,000 range during the worst of the housing crisis are back to pre-recession prices of around $2 million, he said.

• So forlorn homeowners whose homes are struggling to recapture their pre-recession value may want to hold on. McIntosh said prices will keep climbing.

• "I don’t believe that it’s likely you’re going to see housing values level off because there’s not enough supply," McIntosh said, referring to California's failure to build enough homes for its growing population. "I think there's still a lot of pent-up demand."

• But he added that many unknowns may affect home prices in the future, such as higher interest rates. Realtors are also concerned that the Trump Administration's tax plan will result in a loss of tax benefits of owning a home.

Full story
http://www.scpr.org/news/2017/05/08/71619/most-la-homes-still-worth-less-than-before-recessi/

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Friday, April 21, 2017

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW

• California’s spring housing market posted a strong start to the year as existing home sales and median price registered healthy gains in March on both a monthly and annual basis, as did every major region in the state, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said. 

• Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California remained above the 400,000 benchmark for a full year and totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 416,580 units in March, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2017 if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. The March figure was up 4 percent from the 400,720 level in February and up 6.9 percent compared with home sales in March 2016 of a revised 389,770.


• “March’s solid sales performance was likely influenced by the specter of higher interest rates, which may have pushed buyers off the sidelines and close escrow before rates moved higher,” said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. “The strong housing demand, coupled with a shortage of available homes for sale, is pushing prices higher as would-be buyers try to purchase before affordability gets worse.”


• Following back-to-back monthly price declines, the median price of an existing, single-family detached California home climbed back above $500,000 in March. The median price was up 8 percent from $478,570 in February to reach $517,020 in March, and was 6.8 percent higher than the $484,120 recorded in March 2016. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling, as well as a general change in values.

• “The spring homebuying season is off to a good start, as the economic and market fundamentals remain solid for the most part,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “However, higher interest rates, a dearth of housing inventory, and slow wage growth will continue to have an adverse effect on housing affordability that is putting upward pressure on home prices, and is sure to hamper the market throughout the year.”

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MILLENNIAL HOMEBUYERS FORGE AHEAD

As interest rates creep higher and housing markets across the country report lower inventory, the spring house-hunting season looks set to be intense – and perhaps even more so because of a rising number of young buyers testing home ownership for the first time. 

Economists and real estate agents alike are carefully watching Millennials – one of the largest demographics to reshape the American economy since baby boomers – to see not only what kind of effect this debt-laden, tech-savvy generation could have on the housing market but also when it may peak.

Full story
http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2017/0412/Millennial-homebuyers-faced-with-a-tight-market-and- heavy-debt-still-forge-ahead

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IMMIGRANTS KEY TO HOMEOWNERSHIP GROWTH

Source: Urban Land Institute 
The housing and neighborhood location choices of immigrants will have a significant impact on urban growth in the U.S. for decades to come, particularly as more foreign-born residents seek to own homes in suburban communities, according to new research from the Urban Land Institute’s Terwilliger Center for Housing. Homebuilders and developers who can deliver the housing options immigrants want and need stand to benefit in the years to come.

Immigrants in general have strong aspirations for single-family homeownership. They're also increasingly targeting the suburbs in search of greater employment opportunities and lower-cost housing, the study notes.

Making sense of the story
• Nationally, the homeownership gap between all households and black and Latino households has changed little since 1970.

• Without growth of the foreign-population, regions with strong housing markets such as San Francisco would not have recovered as quickly following the recession; and markets that continue to struggle in the recession’s aftermath such as Buffalo would have experienced even weaker growth.

• Immigrants have strong aspirations for single-family homeownership, and homeownership rates for immigrants rise with their length of time in the U.S. This suggests that immigrants will be a key driver for owner-occupied housing for years to come.

• Immigrants seeking to own homes as well as those renting homes are increasingly drawn to the suburbs in search of employment opportunities, lower-cost housing and a higher quality of life. Suburbs are home to high-income, high-skilled immigrants as well as lower-income, lesser-skilled immigrants.

• While immigrants represent a key source of demand for new housing, a substantial share of immigrant housing demand will be met through purchases of existing homes. Sellers of these homes – many of whom will be baby boomers seeking to downsize – will create a strong market for smaller units.

Full story
https://uli.org/press-release/immigrants-housing-demand-report/

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Friday, April 7, 2017

RENTERS NOW RULE HALF OF U.S. CITIES

Detroit was once known as a city where a working-class family could afford to own a home. Now it’s a city of renters.

Just 49 percent of Motor City households were homeowners in 2015, down from 55 percent in 2009 and the lowest percentage in more than 50 years. Detroit isn’t alone, of course: The rate of U.S. home ownership fell steadily for a decade as the foreclosure crisis turned millions of owners into renters and tight housing markets made it hard for renters to buy homes. Demographic shifts—millennials (finally) moving out of their parents basements, for instance, or a rising Hispanic population—further fed the renter pool.

Fifty-two of the 100 largest U.S. cities were majority-renter in 2015, according to U.S. Census Bureau data compiled for Bloomberg by real estate brokerage Redfin. Twenty-one of those cities have shifted to renter-domination since 2009. These include such hot housing markets as Denver and San Diego and lukewarm locales, such as Detroit and Baltimore, better known for vacant homes than residential development.

While U.S. home ownership ticked up in the second half of 2016, there are reasons to think the trend toward renting will continue. A 2015 report from the Urban Institute predicted that rentership would keep rising through 2030, thanks to demographic trends that include aging baby boomers who downsize into rentals.

In the shorter term, housing market dynamics will also play a role. Fewer than 1 million homes were on the market in the first quarter of 2017, the lowest number since Trulia began recording inventory data in 2012. The shortage makes it harder for renters to buy. Meanwhile, rental landlords, including large Wall Street players and mom-and-pop investors, continue to plow cash into single-family homes.

Those shifts are likely to present new challenges for cities unequipped to handle high rental populations. Detroit Future City, a nonprofit that highlighted Detroit’s shift in a report earlier this month, argues that the city needs an intentional strategy for dealing with the rising population of such households.

That could include providing new protections for renters or creating resources to help landlords keep properties in good repair. On a grander scale, the Center for Budget Policy & Priorities, a Washington-based research institute, published a proposal this month calling for a new tax credit for low-wage workers, seniors, and people for disabilities.

Most low-income families don’t rent by choice, said Nela Richardson, chief economist at Redfin. And plenty of higher-income households rent because they can’t afford to buy. “We don’t have enough affordable supply in either rental or for-sale markets,” said Richardson, adding that cities interested in promoting renter-friendly policies can rethink their zoning policies to encourage more construction.

At an even more basic level, city leaders should check old assumptions about the role renter households play in their communities, said Andrew Jakabovics, vice president for policy development at Enterprise Community Partners, an affordable housing nonprofit.

Homeowners have traditionally been regarded as more engaged, with more at stake in the long-term prospects of their neighborhood, Jakabovics said. That view can unfairly shortchange renters.

“It goes a long way just to make sure you’re valuing renters and making sure voices are heard when it’s time to allocate resources to schools or parks or transit lines,” he said.

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HERE'S THE REAL REASON WHY HOMEBUYERS JUST DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND MORTGAGES

A new study by Fannie Mae examines homebuyer education, and explains why many buyers aren’t being educated.
Most consumers interviewed in the study had little or no awareness of pre-purchase homeownership education classes unless they were required to take one.
For this study, Fannie Mae conducted 54 individual in-depth interviews and eight two-hour mini-group discussions across four markets, among lower-income first-time homebuyers as well as professionals, real estate agents and loan officers, who have experience working with lower-income first-time homebuyers and homeownership education or counseling.
Despite the low amount of participation in educational programs, the study showed all participants agreed homeownership education gives borrowers knowledge, confidence and employment to be financially and emotionally prepared for homeownership.
However, homeowners rarely participate in these programs unless they are required to take educational courses and were referred to by loan officers for loan qualification requirements or benefits such as down payment assistance programs, the study showed. In fact, very few even knew the range of programs offered.
“There is considerable fragmentation in the HE landscape,” the study states. “Virtually no consumers and only a few professionals understand the range of HE providers and HE offerings.”
So why is there such a lack of education in the market? Fannie Mae’s study explains that as well. Here are the results for homebuyers, lenders and real estate agents:
  • Homebuyers: HE involves time and inconvenience. It's “another hoop to jump through” during an already stressful time. It sounds like school and involves coming up with more money if a fee is involved.
  • Lenders: HE is one more thing on the long list of paperwork to make the deal happen. Loan officers have a deal-centered, transactional mindset. Some are concerned that borrowers will learn something that could kill the deal or lead them to other lenders.
  • Real estate agents: There is an overall “not my job” mindset. Real estate agents have no concrete incentive or motivation to refer their clients to HE. They view lenders as experts on loan-related steps and process and want to guide or control their clients themselves. Like loan officers, they are concerned that borrowers might connect to another real estate agent or deal.
However, while there may or may not be an incentive to educate homebuyers on an individual deal, there is certainly incentive to having an overall higher-educated industry.
United Wholesale Mortgage recently called out lenders for not educating consumers more after a study from the National Association of Realtors showed 87% of non-homeowners think they need at least 10% down in order to purchase a home.
But the study shows lenders and consumers alike don’t see the personal incentives to educating homebuyers.
“There is almost no voluntary participation by consumers or professionals,” the study states. “Consumers see the value in these programs only after the fact and will not be motivated to participate without concrete incentives.”

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AMERICANS FEEL MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ECONOMY

A barrage of U.S. economic data was released recently, including statistics on the state of the housing market, consumer-confidence figures, and numbers that show the spending and income of Americans. The data show that, while Americans might be optimistic about the job market, there could be a gap between economic expectations and economic reality.

Making sense of the story

• Hiring numbers have been fairly steady, and Americans are buying houses despite the Fed’s recent interest-rate hike. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. national home-price index, which looks at housing prices in 20 cities, saw a 5.9-percent increase. According to a report by the National Association of Realtors, the demand for housing is strong: Its pending home-sales index, which looks at contracts signed in February, jumped 5.5 percent to a 10-month high. Experts believe that the strong housing numbers are because people believe the labor market is strengthening.
• Initial unemployment claims are another reason for optimism: The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims dropped to 258,000 last week. While that decline is less than anticipated, these initial claims have been below 300,000 for over 100 weeks. That’s the longest streak at that level since the 1970s, and the figure is at its lowest level in four decades. The decline in claims suggests a healthy labor market, and is often seen as a proxy for companies avoiding layoffs. But the fact that the indicator isn’t falling as much as expected has experts questioning whether the labor market might be losing momentum.
• Consumer-confidence figures—which measure how Americans feel about their economic future—provided similarly mixed messages: On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence was at a 16-year high.*However, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, which measures consumer confidence via phone interviews, showed a lower-than-expected reading.

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Sunday, March 5, 2017

CALIFORNIA PENDING HOME SALES DIP SLIGHTLY IN JANUARY; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MARKET CONTINUES TO OUTSHINE OTHER REGIONS


Following relatively strong closed escrow home sales over the past few months, California pending home sales slipped negligibly from a year ago, which suggests a softening in the housing market in the upcoming months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said.

Making sense of the story
• Based on signed contracts, statewide pending home sales decreased in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* slipping 0.2 percent from 107.4 from January 2016 to 107.2 in January 2017. On a monthly basis, California pending home sales were down 9.2 percent from the December index of 118.0. 
• Only the Southern California region posted a year-over-year improvement in pending sales last month, rising 8.1 percent from January 2016 and increasing 10.5 percent on a monthly basis. Riverside County led the region in pending sales, posting a 16.2 percent increase from a year ago. Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties also posted modest year-over-year increases of 7.1 percent, 8.0, and 4.0 percent, respectively. San Bernardino County was the only area within Southern California that saw pending sales lower on an annual basis by 2.8 percent.
• For the San Francisco Bay Area as a whole, tight housing supplies and low affordability contributed to a fall in pending sales of 9.7 percent compared to January 2016. Only San Mateo County posted an annual increase, rising 5.3 percent from January 2016 after posting a significant double-digit annual decline (35.3 percent) in December. Pending home sales decreased 21.2 percent in San Francisco County, 7.1 percent in Santa Clara County, 24.9 percent in Monterey, and 4.8 percent in Santa Cruz County. A shortage of homes on the market and poor affordability will likely persist throughout the year, and impact Bay Area home sales.
• Pending sales in the Central Valley fell 7.9 percent from January 2016 and were up 2.2 percent from December. Within Central Valley, pending sales were down 14.6 percent in Kern County and 11.8 percent in Sacramento compared with a year ago.

Full story

http://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2017releases/jan2017pendingsales

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SPRING HOUSING ALREADY OVERHEATING – THINK 60 OFFERS ON ONE HOUSE

The spring housing market started early this year, not because of higher-than-average temperatures but because of hotter-than-average demand and overheating home prices.

This year may be the starkest example of a post-recession reality that is redefining housing as we know it.

"This spring housing market is shaping up to be another doozy for homebuyers," said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for home-listing website Trulia. "Housing affordability is the key to helping break yet another year of gridlocked inventory, but all signs are showing that homes this spring will be much less affordable than last year."


Affordability is being hit on several fronts: The foreclosure crisis is over, but it left behind an entirely new landscape for potential buyers. Entry-level homes are scarce because investors bought tens of thousands of them during the crisis and turned them into rentals. The number of single-family rentals jumped to more than 15 million, up from about 11 million in 2009, according to the U.S. Census.

Homebuilders continue to operate well below normal levels because of higher costs and a lack of labor, and thousands of construction workers left the business during the recession, never to return. Builders don't focus on entry-level homes because the margins are simply too tight, and prices for new construction are also rising at a fast clip.

What's more, credit is still tight, and the youngest cohort of buyers, the millennials, are delaying marriage and parenthood, the two biggest drivers of home ownership. The shortage of homes for sale has now pushed prices to a 30-year high, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. Rising mortgage rates only add to the pressure.

"Home prices continue to advance, with the national average rising faster than at any time in the last two-and-a-half years," said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "With all 20 cities [in the S&P/Case-Shiller Index] seeing prices rise over the last year, questions about whether this is a normal housing market or if prices could be heading for a fall are natural."

At a Sunday open house in Los Angeles this weekend, nearly a dozen house hunters showed up before the scheduled start. The three-bedroom, two-bathroom home was reasonably priced, in a desirable neighborhood and move-in ready.

Emily Leach, 35, knows that story all too well. She has been looking for a few months, hoping that by getting in before spring she might have a better chance at an affordable home. So far, that has not been the case.

"We actually had a house that we saw that we really liked in South-Central Los Angeles, and we tried to make a move on that and we got outbid. South-Central!" she laughed.

Michelle and Derrick Jacob have been trolling the market for six months. They have a strict budget with little leeway, making it difficult for them to compete.

"The ones we want seem to be purchased in a snap, over asking price most of the time, well over asking price," Derrick Jacob said.

Housing demand climbed considerably this year, even compared with last year, as the leading edge of the largest generation finally moves into homebuying and a stronger job market supports them. A monthly demand index from Redfin jumped to the highest level since January 2013, when the index began. Compared to January 2016, homebuyer demand was up 23 percent, led by a 26 percent annual increase in homebuyers requesting tours and an 18 percent increase in buyers making offers.

"Soaring stock markets, still-low mortgage rates, and a steady economy bolstered homebuyers at the start of 2017," said Nela Richardson, Redfin chief economist. "Homebuyers were not just window shopping. They were serious about making offers and getting to the closing table. However, this uptick in homebuyer enthusiasm won't guarantee strong sales in the coming months. With pending home sales down across the country in January despite strong demand, the lack of supply is a formidable foe for buyers this year."

Higher home prices in some areas are supported by improving local economies and employment, but in other markets, too much demand pitted against too little supply is resulting in overheated housing. Dallas, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Portland, Oregon, are overpriced by 10 to 14 percent, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings, which considers markets overheated when they exceed the areas' supporting economic fundamentals. Los Angeles, Miami and Tampa, Florida, are close to 10 percent overvalued.

Analysts at Fitch don't predict when any of these bubbles will burst, but they do point to certain warning signs.

"For Dallas, the current unemployment rate in the Fort Worth [Texas] region is 3 percent. You'd have to go back 30 years to go that low. We think it's not sustainable. The business cycle will turn. Eventually, when it does, home prices will come down," said Samuel So, director of research at Fitch.

Potential buyers today are facing tough new realities. Some houses are clearly overpriced, and renting is still a better financial option in some markets. Competition is fierce for the best homes, and buyers have to be ready to pull out all the tricks.

"You have to make an introductory letter, little story about yourself and you just hope that the home that you're buying is not being sold by a flipper because they are much more neutral," Leach advised. "If you have a home that's being sold by the previous owners, you might be able to get that emotional human connection."

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WHAT HOME BUYERS WISH THEY'D KNOWN


Nearly half of American homeowners recently surveyed said they would do something differently if they were to go through the homebuying process again, according to the NerdWallet’s Home Buyer Reality Report, which analyzed the steps more than 2,200 Americans took to homeownership.

What are the top things consumers say they regretted?
•  20 percent wished they had saved more money before buying a home
•  13 percent would do more research on the mortgage-lending process •  14 percent would have shopped around more for a mortgage •  13 percent would research the homebuying process more
Full story 

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/2017-home-buyer-reality-report/

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Friday, February 24, 2017

FREDDIE MAC: MARKET UNCERTAINTY DISORIENTS MORTGAGE RATES


Continuing its new pattern, the 30-year mortgage rate continues to stray from the Treasury yield amid rising market uncertainty.

“This week’s survey once again displays the disconnect between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, a result of continued uncertainty,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti said.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased slightly to 4.16 percent for the week ending Feb. 23, 2017. This is up from last week’s 4.15 percent and from last year’s 3.62 percent.

The 15-year FRM also increased slightly to 3.37 percent, up from last week’s 3.35 percent and from last year’s 2.93 percent.

However, the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage decreased slightly to 3.16 percent, down from last week’s 3.18 percent but still up from last year’s 2.79 percent.

“In a short week following Presidents Day, the 10-year Treasury yield fell about eight basis points,” Becketti said. “However, the 30-year mortgage rate rose one basis point to 4.16 percent.”

Read the full story

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/39302-freddie-mac-market-uncertainty-disorients-mortgage- rates

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CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET KICKS OFF YEAR HIGHER IN JANUARY


California’s housing market started the year on a high note, following up on December’s strong showing with higher sales both on a monthly and yearly basis in January, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 420,100 units in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2017 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The January figure was up 2.1 percent from the 411,430 level in December, and up 4.4 percent compared with home sales in January 2016 of a revised 402,220. The month-to-month gain was the first December- to-January increase since 2012, which is an encouraging sign.

“California’s housing market continues to be defined by the higher-priced, coastal markets and the less expensive, inland areas that still offer access to major employment centers,” said C.A.R. President Geoff McIntosh. “For example, eroding affordability and tight housing inventory are pushing buyers away from the core Bay Area markets of San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara and into less expensive bedroom communities, such as Contra Costa, Napa, and Solano. In Southern California, an influx of buyers from coastal employment areas into the Inland Empire drove healthy year-over-year sales in Riverside and San Bernardino.”

Making sense of the story
• The median price of an existing, single-family detached California home fell below the $500,000 mark for the first time since March 2016, but home prices remain seasonably strong. 
• The median price was down 3.8 percent from a revised $508,870 in December to $489,580 in January. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling, as well as a general change in values.
• January’s median price was up 4.8 percent from the revised $467,160 recorded in January 2016, a slightly slower pace than the 5.6 percent increase averaged last year.
• Since 2011, price declines from December to January have usually ranged from -11.7 percent to as little as -4.6 percent, but January’s 3.8 percent monthly smaller price decline suggests that price pressure remains relatively robust and could translate into additional price growth as the spring and summer home-buying seasons near.

Read the full story

http://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2017releases/jan2017sales

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Sunday, February 12, 2017

SWIFT GAINS IN FOURTH QUARTER PUSH HOME PRICES TO PEAK LEVELS IN MAJORITY OF METRO AREAS

The best quarterly sales pace of the year pushed available housing supply to record lows and caused price appreciation to slightly speed up in the final three months of 2016, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors®. The report also revealed that sales prices in over half of measured markets since 2005 are now at or above their previous peak level.

The median existing single-family home price increased in 89 percent of measured markets, with 158 out of 178 metropolitan statistical areas 1 (MSAs) showing sales price gains in the fourth quarter of 2016 compared with the fourth quarter of 2015. Twenty areas (11 percent) recorded lower median prices from a year earlier.

There were more rising markets in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2016, when price gains were recorded in 87 percent of metro areas. Thirty-one metro areas in the fourth quarter (17 percent) experienced double-digit increases — an increase from 14 percent in the third quarter.

For all of 2016, an average of 87 percent of measured markets saw increasing home prices, up from the averages in 2015 (86 percent) and 2014 (75 percent). Of the 150 markets NAR has tracked since 2005, 78 (52 percent) now have a median sales price at or above their previous all-time high.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says home-price gains showed little evidence of letting up through all of 2016. "Buyer interest stayed elevated in most areas thanks to mortgage rates under 4 percent for most of the year and the creation of 1.7 million new jobs edging the job market closer to full employment," he said. "At the same time, the inability for supply to catch up with this demand drove prices higher and continued to put a tight affordability squeeze on those trying to reach the market."

Added Yun, "Depressed new and existing inventory conditions led to several of the largest metro areas seeing near or above double-digit appreciation, which has pushed home values to record highs in a slight majority of markets. The exception for the most part is in the Northeast, where price growth is flatter because of healthier supply conditions."

The national median existing single-family home price in the fourth quarter of 2016 was $235,000, which is up 5.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2015 ($222,300). The median price during the third quarter of 2016 increased 5.4 percent from the third quarter of 2015.

At the end of the fourth quarter, there were 1.65 million existing homes available for sale 2, which was 6.3 percent below the 1.76 million homes for sale at the end of the fourth quarter in 2015 and the lowest level since NAR began tracking the supply of all housing types in 1999. The average supply during the fourth quarter was 3.9 months — down from 4.6 months a year ago.

NAR President William E. Brown, a Realtor® from Alamo, California, says prospective buyers will likely see competition in their market increase even more this spring. "The prospect of higher mortgage rates and more home shoppers in coming months should be enough of an incentive for those serious about buying to start their search now," he said. "There are fewer listings on the market, but also a little less competition than what's expected this spring. Buyers may find just the home they're looking for at a good price and without the possibility of having to outbid others."

Total existing-home sales 3, including single family and condos, rose 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in the fourth quarter from 5.39 million in the third quarter of 2016, and are 7.1 percent higher than the 5.20 million pace during the fourth quarter of 2015.

Despite a meaningful increase in the national family median income ($70,831) 4, rising prices and the boost in mortgage rates at the end of the year slightly weakened affordability compared to a year ago. To purchase a single-family home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent down payment would need an income of $51,017, a 10 percent down payment would require an income of $48,332, and $42,962 would be needed for a 20 percent down payment.

"Even a pick-up in wage growth may be insufficient to compensate the impact of higher mortgage rates and home prices. Increased homebuilding will be crucial to alleviate supply shortages and stave off the affordability hit," added Yun.

Metro area condominium and cooperative prices — covering changes in 61 metro areas — showed the national median existing-condo price was $222,000 in the fourth quarter, up 6.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2015 ($209,300). Nearly all metro areas (93 percent) showed gains in their median condo price from a year ago.

The five most expensive housing markets in the fourth quarter were the San Jose, California, metro area, where the median existing single-family price was $1,005,000; San Francisco, $837,500; Anaheim-Santa Ana, California, $745,200; urban Honolulu, $740,200; and San Diego, $593,000.

The five lowest-cost metro areas in the fourth quarter were Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, Ohio, $87,600; Decatur, Illinois, $92,400; Cumberland, Maryland, $94,000; Rockford, Illinois, $109,500, and Binghamton, New York, $109,700.


Regional Breakdown
Total existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 10.5 percent in the fourth quarter and are now 6.4 percent above the fourth quarter of 2015. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast was $254,100 in the fourth quarter, slightly lower (0.2 percent) from a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales climbed 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter and are 8.8 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest increased 5.7 percent to $181,100 in the fourth quarter from the same quarter a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and are 5.4 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2015. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $210,500 in the fourth quarter, 7.9 percent above a year earlier.

In the West, existing-home sales rose 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter and are 9.1 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West increased 7.8 percent to $348,800 in the fourth quarter from the fourth quarter of 2015.

The National Association of Realtors®, "The Voice for Real Estate," is America's largest trade association, representing over 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

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SMALL HOMES CAN OFFER BIG RETURNS

When shopping for a new home, bigger is better, right? When it comes to roomier closets and more spacious kitchens, probably — but not so much when considering the return on your investment. According to a NerdWallet analysis of three years of data from Realtor.com for 20 of the largest U.S. metro areas, smaller homes generally appreciate at a faster rate than larger abodes.

NerdWallet looked at Realtor.com’s data for home listing prices in each of the 20 largest metro areas by population (other than New York City and Philadelphia, which had insufficient data) from 2013 to 2016. Homes for each metro area were lumped into four equal groups, or quartiles, based on square footage, each relative to the median home size in that area. From there, we calculated the compound annual growth rate of listing prices.

Key takeaways• Smaller homes see prices rise faster: While individual market dynamics and trends vary, in 17 of the 20 metro areas analyzed, listing prices of the smallest 25% of homes grew fastest when calculated as a percentage. The median annual growth rate for the smallest quartile of homes was 8.9% from 2013 to 2016. The second-smallest group of homes had the second-fastest growth rate, with median annual growth of 7.4%.


• Prices in Florida appreciated fastest: The two metro areas with the fastest rate of price appreciation among the smallest homes are both in Florida. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach saw the most drastic growth, as the smallest quartile of homes appreciated by 19.5% each year from 2013 to 2016. The metro area with the second-fastest appreciation of small homes was Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida, where the smallest quartile of homes appreciated by 16.6% annually.

• Larger homes appreciate fastest by dollar amount: While the smallest homes appreciate fastest when viewed as a percentage, larger homes appreciate faster when looking at absolute dollar amount. This is simply because of the larger price tag of the home. For example, the smallest homes in the metro areas we analyzed appreciated just over $57,535 on average between 2013 and 2016. Over the same period, the largest homes saw their prices rise $99,790 on average.

Why small homes might net better returns faster
These findings are not surprising, says Richard K. Green, a professor and chair of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California. “We’ve had this now for about nine to 10 years, this return to center cities” being more desirable than suburbs, Green says. And homes in the center of big cities tend to be smaller than those in suburbs, Green noted, regardless of whether they’re historic houses or new construction.

In addition to increased demand for homes in city centers, another possible reason for the trend, Green says, is that new construction has been down nationwide dating back to 2007; that means inventory in general is low. Furthermore, many people who bought starter homes between 2004 and 2006 haven’t recovered all the value they lost during the housing crisis.

“They haven’t built up the equity that normally people would use for a down payment in order to move up, so you have a lot of people who are stuck in their starter homes,” Green says. While home prices are going up, he says, they’re not high enough to get people to leave their starter homes except in a few markets, such as Denver and Dallas. As a result, there often aren’t enough starter homes on the market to meet demand. This lack of inventory, paired with increased demand, means more price appreciation for smaller homes.

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THE DEFINITIVE HOUSING MARKET AND INTEREST RATE FORECAST FOR 2017

Active and higher. That’s it, that’s my forecast; housing markets will be active and interest rates will trend higher. The question of course is how active and how much higher, so here you go:

Since what I do is all about finance and interest rates, people tend to assume that I know what is behind the doors with the signs that say “Interest Rates” and “Market Trends.” Truth is I am no better at handicapping interest rate and housing market trends than anybody else. I watch every day, I absorb what is happening, I make assumptions and I roll the dice just like everybody else.

Real estate agents dominate my cell phone and Outlook contacts. I am a mortgage guy and real estate people are important if I want to do things like pay bills, eat and maybe save for when I am too old to do this anymore. The technical term for mortgage “guy” is “originator.”

And real estate people ask me all the time what I think about economic things that have a lot to do with our respective livelihoods. I get asked about what direction interest rates are headed and where they will be in the future. I get asked what I think housing market activity will be and how strong the economy will look in 2017. I have been a mortgage guy for a long time and I think I have the exact right answer when I get asked the housing market activity question. What direction rates are headed and what the economy will be doing are questions that are above my pay grade, but I will do some common sense opining here in a moment.

As far as the housing market in 2017, I can say with absolute certainty that people will be selling houses, people will be buying houses and people will be getting mortgages. I am 100% certain of this and you can use this information with ironclad confidence as you tread into whatever housing market dynamics you are contemplating. Mortgage interest rates do not drive or impede housing market activity. People buy and sell houses in all interest rate environments and for a host of reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage payments. Families grow, families shrink, jobs and fortunes change, people get married, people get divorced, this list could go on all night. Interest rates are just part of the equation; they are not the headline determinant.

And interest rates have already telegraphed the near term future trend with a dramatic move north following the U.S. Presidential election. Almost immediately after the votes were tallied, mortgage rates which had been hovering around 3.50% zoomed up to 4.25% and have settled in with this as the current norm. And while the Fed left short term rates unchanged at last week’s meeting, notice has been given that engineered rates will be moving north in 2017.

According to Dr. Yoav Benari of financialgauge.com; “The current environment of slow but steady economic growth and inflation suggest an end to the secular decline in bond yields once 10-year Treasuries top 2.5% - with a likely levelling off in a range between 3% and 4%”. At this writing, 10-year Treasury yields are trading slightly above 2.4% and mortgage interest rates are hovering around 4.25%. Should 10-year Treasury yields move to somewhere between 3% to 4%, we will see mortgage interest rates in the 4.75% to 5.75% range.

The U.S. economy has yet to break out and definitively march towards real growth but signs are bullish and bets are being made that robust will be a regular part of the economic lexicon before long.

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Saturday, February 4, 2017

TRULIA REPORTS MILLENNIALS THINK HOUSING NO LONGER PART OF AMERICAN DREAM

The homeownership rate remained the same in the fourth quarter as the previous year and the previous quarter, according to today’s report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The national homeownership rate slipped only slightly to 63.7% in the fourth quarter. This is down from the previous year’s 63.8% and up slightly from the third quarter’s 63.5%.

One economist explains that the lack of inventory is partially to blame for the low homeownership rate.

“After reaching a 50-year low in mid-2016, the homeownership rate edged up for the second consecutive time in the final quarter,” Capital Economics Property Economist Matthew Pointon said. “A lack of inventory is preventing a faster rebound in homeownership.”

The national vacancy rates for rental housing in the fourth quarter of 2016 dipped slightly from 7% in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 6.9%. This is a slight increase from the third quarter’s 6.8%. Similarly, the homeowner vacancy rate of 1.8% is also slightly down from the fourth quarter of 2015’s 1.9% and the same as the third quarter’s rate.

But this could get even worse in the year ahead. Trulia’s end of the year survey shows the share of Americans who say homeownership is part of the American dream dropped for the first time in five years from 75% last year to 72%.

This drop was even more extreme among Millennials. While in 2015 80% of Millennials said buying a home was part of the American dream, the survey at the end of 2016 showed that number dropped to 72%, now even with everyone else.

“Given millennials make up the largest pool of potential homebuyers in the U.S., this should be at least somewhat disconcerting,” Trulia Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin said. “If the for-sale housing market is to continue building steam in the years ahead, this demographic will need to transition into homeownership in order to support the resale of homes by their older counterparts.”

“Though home buying among millennials is likely to be volatile in the short-run, the long-run potential for this generation to support housing consumption in the U.S. is large,” McLaughlin said.

However, there is still hope for the future of homeownership. McLaughlin points out that the report shows growth in household formation. Household formation increased 0.5%to 805,000 new households, however the increase was due to the formation of renter households.

“This effectively is why the homeownership rate has dropped: a greater share of new households since 2006 have been renters rather than home owners,” McLaughlin said. “But the margin is slimming: about 46% of new households over the past year were owner occupied.”

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