WHAT WILL 2012 BRING FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE?

Well, gee, let me get out my crystal ball and take a look... No it isn't meant to be a completely flippant statement, but at this point, everyone is guessing, if they're honest about it. But we can make some pretty good calculations, and estimations based on what's actually happened and inventories. First of all, you must remember that home ownership is about a whole lot more than a cash investment. Yes, it's a hedge against inflation (more on that below), and yes, it's the only investment where you can leverage your cash on such a large transaction. Those points alone should make real estate attractive. But houses were never meant to be ATM's, as many have sadly discovered, and they were not meant to be flipped as fluently as trading stocks, which still others have discovered. But for the long term buy and hold mentality, it's hard to beat real estate. And, that philosophy was just discussed by 3 economists in the New York Times in the December 31st Business section. But home ownership is much, much, more. It is where you raise your family, it is your sanctuary, and it is a quality of life embedded in your investment. But maybe most importantly, it's a way to protect your housing dollar from ever rising again...EVER. To find out what next year will look like? Read the whole newsletter, and you should get a pretty good idea. A summary statement might be, look for the beginnings of the turnaround, for prices to bottom out by 2nd quarter, interest rates to stay killer for at least 6 months, and the overall economy to do its part, as it's projected to grow about 4% this year (last year was approximately 2.7%).

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WHERE WILL HOUSING PRICES GO THIS SPRING?

This column is not about to make serious predictions, but there are some indicators worth noting. First of all, the slough off of foreclosures last year due to moratoriums and fraudulent robo signing issues should be off the radar and allow foreclosures to ramp back up. That should mean more competition with the short and equity seller, as well as some pent up listing activity of people who didn't want to list during the holidays. The first and second quarter is always when you see the most listing activity. Following are 4 brief statements by various entities about spring pricing. Zillow believes we not see a bottom in prices until the first quarter of 2012. Standard and Poor thinks prices will drop 5% in the next few months. JP Morgan Chase believes prices will depreciate 6% to 7% over the next 6 months. Barclays says prices will fall 7% by the end of the first quarter of 2012. One thing everyone seems to be in agreement on: housing prices will bottom out by mid-2012 and then stay flat, bringing this down market to an end. A long recovery may be in the offing, but it will be hard for buyers to stay on the sidelines with current pricing and interest rates. Don't be fooled by a house that MAY decline another 2%-3%, but be stuck with a higher interest rate on the loan that more than eradicates any savings on the housing price.

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WHERE IS THE SILVER LINING?

The silver lining in real estate is always the future: because the future is where the pent up demand is heading. If you think this overly optimistic, think about the following...
Trulia conducted a survey with Generation "Y", trying to determine future buying trends. One of the questions asked was whether or not they believed in home ownership as part of the American Dream. A staggering 65% said "Yes!" In fact, it was integral to their future plans for family and investment. So where are they? Many are living at home, saving money, and waiting. In fact, the number of young people living with parents in 2003 was approximately 4 million. By 2007 that number had increased to 4.7 million. This year that number is 5.9 million. That's a lot of people who intend to buy, when you figure out 65% of that number. That doesn't include move up buyers of Generations "X" and "Y" who are already in the market. And it doesn't consider the retiring of the "Boomers" and the transfer of wealth. As this year progresses, there will likely be ups and downs. But we planning for an optimistic year ahead. Why not?

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