Friday, October 3, 2014


Newspaper accounts would have you believe that housing prices have gone up even as fewer homebuyers are willing to pay more.  That's because, as covered before in this column, year over year prices are still slightly rising because of the influence of the 2013 numbers in the median configuration of pricing.  In fact, prices are stable and low interest rates are having a "yawn" effect on would be buyers.  But if you can get in now, you should.  Every poll taken recently, regarding the Millennial Generation, indicates strong belief in home ownership.  They poll even higher than did the Boomer Generation and they've driven real estate prices for 30 years.  But the M generation will not go into extreme debt for home ownership.  Just like the Great Depression shaped that generation, so has the Great Recession shaped the M generation.  They are savers; practical in nearly every way.  Look for them to save and save and  So why get in now?  Because sometime in the next 2-3 years, supply and demand will take over and prices will rise again.  The next 24 months may be some of the most reasonable months of housing appreciation that So Cal will see for the next decade.  Other reasons for modest growth?  Just as the stock market cannot forever climb just because of cheap money, and without earnings by those companies, real estate cannot sustain long term appreciation without affordability and that comes from payroll earnings.  Salaries and incomes must catch up and then saddle up side by side for the most successful and sustainable market.  Are we on our way towards this?  Yes, unmistakably we are, and it cannot hurt for all who can find their ideal home or investment, to do so before increased competition limits your choices. Prices will not come down significantly, in fact, probably only based on condition, location, and competition.  A good recovering market is in the works.



The total number of sales for the month of July, (the last complete month available), was 3,255.  That breaks down to 2,008 single-family resale, 894 resale condos, and 353 new homes.  The only increase in sales was for new homes which rose 53%. Since there has been so little product for so long during the recession, it isn't a big surprise to see that jump as new home inventory makes a come back.  Resale single-family and condos were both off about 15%.  All numbers compare this July with the same month 2013.  The median price rose for both single-family and condos, but has cooled to a much healthier 5.6% and 5.1% respectfully.  These numbers represent a 3 year low for volume, dating back to 2011.  Supply certainly isn't back where it should be and buyers will continue to struggle with pricing.



Melbourne ranked number 1, Vancouver a not surprising number 3...clean air, safe streets, natural beauty etc.  but actually, rankings were done by The Economist, and the editors were looking for other factors, such as worker safety, economic sustainability; in other words, the way a multinational corporation might look at a region.  The U.S. doesn't pop up until # 26 - Honolulu.  Pittsburgh was #30, Miami #36.  There are other cities such as Boston and Seattle also ranked, and Los Angeles (one might stretch this to thinking So Cal, as this is a macro approach) # 42, incredibly ahead of San Francisco at # 52, undoubtedly because of housing affordability.



Fed chief Janet Yellen is staying committed to keeping interest rates low until job growth is completely recovered. Lenders are talking about a mini refinance boom this coming year.  If you plan to purchase be sure to get prequalified, and if you are selling, demand that all prospective buyers already be screened and qualified to make an offer on your home.  


  © Blogger templates Psi by 2008

Back to TOP