WHAT WILL 2012 BRING FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA REAL ESTATE?

Well, gee, let me get out my crystal ball and take a look... No it isn't meant to be a completely flippant statement, but at this point, everyone is guessing, if they're honest about it. But we can make some pretty good calculations, and estimations based on what's actually happened and inventories. First of all, you must remember that home ownership is about a whole lot more than a cash investment. Yes, it's a hedge against inflation (more on that below), and yes, it's the only investment where you can leverage your cash on such a large transaction. Those points alone should make real estate attractive. But houses were never meant to be ATM's, as many have sadly discovered, and they were not meant to be flipped as fluently as trading stocks, which still others have discovered. But for the long term buy and hold mentality, it's hard to beat real estate. And, that philosophy was just discussed by 3 economists in the New York Times in the December 31st Business section. But home ownership is much, much, more. It is where you raise your family, it is your sanctuary, and it is a quality of life embedded in your investment. But maybe most importantly, it's a way to protect your housing dollar from ever rising again...EVER. To find out what next year will look like? Read the whole newsletter, and you should get a pretty good idea. A summary statement might be, look for the beginnings of the turnaround, for prices to bottom out by 2nd quarter, interest rates to stay killer for at least 6 months, and the overall economy to do its part, as it's projected to grow about 4% this year (last year was approximately 2.7%).

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WHERE WILL HOUSING PRICES GO THIS SPRING?

This column is not about to make serious predictions, but there are some indicators worth noting. First of all, the slough off of foreclosures last year due to moratoriums and fraudulent robo signing issues should be off the radar and allow foreclosures to ramp back up. That should mean more competition with the short and equity seller, as well as some pent up listing activity of people who didn't want to list during the holidays. The first and second quarter is always when you see the most listing activity. Following are 4 brief statements by various entities about spring pricing. Zillow believes we not see a bottom in prices until the first quarter of 2012. Standard and Poor thinks prices will drop 5% in the next few months. JP Morgan Chase believes prices will depreciate 6% to 7% over the next 6 months. Barclays says prices will fall 7% by the end of the first quarter of 2012. One thing everyone seems to be in agreement on: housing prices will bottom out by mid-2012 and then stay flat, bringing this down market to an end. A long recovery may be in the offing, but it will be hard for buyers to stay on the sidelines with current pricing and interest rates. Don't be fooled by a house that MAY decline another 2%-3%, but be stuck with a higher interest rate on the loan that more than eradicates any savings on the housing price.

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WHERE IS THE SILVER LINING?

The silver lining in real estate is always the future: because the future is where the pent up demand is heading. If you think this overly optimistic, think about the following...
Trulia conducted a survey with Generation "Y", trying to determine future buying trends. One of the questions asked was whether or not they believed in home ownership as part of the American Dream. A staggering 65% said "Yes!" In fact, it was integral to their future plans for family and investment. So where are they? Many are living at home, saving money, and waiting. In fact, the number of young people living with parents in 2003 was approximately 4 million. By 2007 that number had increased to 4.7 million. This year that number is 5.9 million. That's a lot of people who intend to buy, when you figure out 65% of that number. That doesn't include move up buyers of Generations "X" and "Y" who are already in the market. And it doesn't consider the retiring of the "Boomers" and the transfer of wealth. As this year progresses, there will likely be ups and downs. But we planning for an optimistic year ahead. Why not?

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HOMEOWNERSHIP: REPORTS OF ITS DEATH ARE EXAGGERATED

This headline was posted by the KCM Crew, authors of a blog for a real estate website called, "Keeping Current Matters."  It's a great name for a blog, because in real estate, keeping current does indeed... matter.  The above mentioned article randomly addresses the many negative articles regarding real estate, many of which have been published in local southern California papers.  This newsletter, although not political, strongly disagrees with scare tactics and negative ploys designed solely to sell papers.  After numerous recent articles all playing on the word, "scary", a pun on the Halloween holiday, let's level the playing field with some real numbers and let you, the discerning and intelligent reader, make up your own mind. 
 
Local papers would have you believe that the sky is, in fact, falling; real estate will never recover and will never be the same. More on that later, with some real numbers that are a little sobering.  But first, homeownership itself; is it dwindling?  Is it, "on its way out?"  Hardly.  In fact, pick up a copy of the recently released Fannie Mae 2011 3rd quarter National Housing Survey.  Both Generation Y (birthday mid-1970's to mid-1990's) and Generation X (mid-1960's to mid-1970's) have stronger beliefs in the importance of homeownership than those of the general population... yes that would be the boomers, and boomers have loved real estate.  It seems clear that as the economy improves, so will housing demand.

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BUT DON'T BELIEVE THAT THERE IS NO DEMAND FOR HOUSING NOW

In fact, local associations of Realtors and Multiple Listing Data indicate that inventory is quite low.  Part of the reason sales have slowed is there simply isn't enough saleable product out there.   In this type of market, there will always be properties on the market that are technically available inventory, but simply have too many problems to overcome.  They need a particular type of buyer.  These properties can make it appear there is more inventory than is actually "saleable."  Frankly, it is surprising that people who can buy, have chosen to back away from the market because of predictions of a triple dip.  It's a "cost vs. buy" analysis.  If you believe in home ownership, its tax deductions, its features of durability and stability for yourself and your family, then prices coupled with interest rates should make for a fairly attractive picture.  Yes, prices could go down, but what it actually costs you, may never be better.  Also loan programs could change and availability could change, since lending has been very volatile.  But what won't change is the historic and undeniable return on investment that occurs in real estate every 10 years.  Sometimes the cycle is shorter; sometimes the downturns (such as this one) are annoying.  But check on a property, any property, and see what it sold for in 2000, and what its value is today, in the midst of our worst downturn.  REMEMBER THE PROMISE OF MORE ON THE TOPIC, "REAL ESTATE WILL NEVER RECOVER?..."

            REAL ESTATE AS A LONGER TERM INVESTMENT SINCE 2000

        DOW +6.7%          S&P -12%             NASDAQ -30%          REAL ESTATE +43%

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THE SHIP APPEARS TO BE TURNING, OR HOUSE PRICES TO FALL OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS

Well, both are true.  October 31st, CNN Money reported: "Home prices headed for triple dip."  Fiserv (a financial analytics company), has predicted a 3.6% fall in prices on a national basis by next summer.  Now remember, southern California is a very different place than Las Vegas or Florida.  But still, nationally it means that the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is going to fall to 35% below its peak in 2006.  But what Ken Johnson, Ph.D. (Florida International University and Editor of the Journal of Housing Research) points out, is that the dip depends on circumstances being in place to lessen the impact that market anxiety causes.  What circumstances?  According to Johnson they are sometimes referred to as "housing affordability measures, and some of them are:  1) Price of income to the house 2) mortgage payment to income  3) buy versus rent analysis for various markets that encourage buying.  Did you know that the payments to income ratios are at a 30-year low in all 50 states?  Why haven't the local papers reported that?  The downturn in prices will bring more affordability factors into play for more people, especially the Gen Xers and Gen Yers, which is where the pent up demand is going to come from in the first place.

Also of interest locally to southern California is the best prognosis for recovery you can have: skilled labor, desirable location, and economic resiliency.

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HOMEBUILDING HIBERNATION ENDS

This was the headline of the Orange County Register on Sunday May 22nd.  The entire real estate section was focused on all the housing developments that are picking up steam by most So Cal builders.  The California division president of Fieldstone communities delivered the following quote, "It makes sense (to build) again.  We can deliver a product where there's demand.”  This column has been emphasizing for a few months, that the lapse in building over this fairly prolonged period of time, will result in heavy pressure on the resale market.  That's good for homeowners who have hung in there, despite the odds, and have stayed current on payments and are riding out this temporary loss of equity.  Why do I say temporary?  Let's look at investments for the last ten years.  There is not enough space here to do a comparison chart, but do your own.  Take a look at the S & P 500, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Real Estate.  Let's see which one, held from 2000 to 2010 (the worst decade, all agree, in real estate) and see which investment fared best.  The short cut answer: real estate.  Also, with that investment, you managed to leverage your money and buy something somewhere between 10 X's and 5 X's your investment, depending on your down payment.  You more than likely fixed your housing cost, unlike renting, and if you didn't use your home like an ATM, you have built equity.  Let's not forget one of the best tax breaks for the middle class, interest deduction.  Buying real estate doesn't sound so bad... No wonder they're building again.  All agree building has been in the tank.  This column has reported how low permits and percentages have been off.  So after nearly 2 years of a blank in the building department, 28 developments have started the building process in one way or another.  According to Irvine-based housing consultant John Burns, "builders are coming out of hibernation."  The projects together include approximately 3,000 homes and townhouses and duplexes.  Compare that to the paltry 1,600 of 2008-09.  But catch up doesn't happen overnight.  Short sales and foreclosures will continue to be a part of the market mix for several years to come, and certain buyers will be drawn to them for either "patience equity" or investors looking to rehab and sell.  Equity, or standard sales, will continue to rule the qualified buyer who can afford to pay market rate for a turnkey property.

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